Terrorism : how to predict the passage to the act?

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Maxime Huard

Tuesday, February 6, 2018 18:37

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Tuesday, February 6, 2018 18:37

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In the wake of the attacks in Ottawa and Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu in 2014, the canadian security intelligence (CSIS) has studied the route a hundred jihadists to identify the warning signs of terrorism.

In order to help the spies canadians and raise public awareness, a report released this week paints a portrait of those who rock in the violence. Here are five traits that characterize them.

1 – A year of preparations

Before moving on to the act, an extremist is going to change behavior over a period of approximately 12 months. Initially, the changes are minor, like the beginning of a program of physical training. Then, the financial activities unusual multiply : some fill their credit card, other sell their belongings to find the necessary funds for their plans. In the last few months, a potential terrorist will, for instance, to draw up his testament, in addition to the approaches his final project, such as the purchase of a plane ticket.

2 – information leakage

In almost all cases of preparation of act of terrorism, the people radicalized to commit “indiscretions” that betray their intentions. “The members of the entourage of Canadians who are mobilizing to observe activities and behaviors that reveal the mobilization imminent violence,” the report says. According to the CSIS, these “leaks” are almost impossible to avoid for someone who plans a terrorist attack or a trip to go and fight abroad.

3 – The plans that change suddenly

Extremists often encounter obstacles in their way, forcing them to change their plans. For example, someone who wants to go to wage jihad abroad, but that made seize his passport, can abruptly change its mind and decide to commit a terrorist act in Canada. “Such a shift can be swift and sudden, because the individual who mobilizes becomes frustrated,” the report notes.

4 – Mobilization group

Since youth have less income and do not always have access to a passport, they have a greater need for a network to achieve their purposes. According to the CSIS, 80 % of people under 20 years of age are mobilized in a group. As for the women, they do not mobilise never only. Links love and friendship are most important in their efforts, but the CSIS said that they do not seek just to support fighters male.

5 – Not necessarily criminal past

The terrorists who pass the act are not necessarily of a criminal past. Only 27 % of Canadians who are mobilizing files, notes CSIS. The monitoring agency has found no link between the violence of criminal history and the planning of a terrorist act.