Will the Land to feed ten billion people!

Techno 17 February, 2018

2018-02-17 19:34

Will the Land to feed ten billion people!
The Earth’s population now stands at 7.6 billion people.

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The Earth’s population now amounts to 7.6 billion people, reports Rus.Media.The majority of specialists in demography agree on the view that by 2050 this number will increase to about ten billion. The question arises: how to feed everyone, while not killing the planet?

Bitter rivals

In the opinion of the author, Charles Mann, almost all possible answers to this question can be divided into two broad categories, which are associated with the names of the two Americans who lived in the 20th century — William Vogt (and Norman Borlaug.

For Berloga the answer to the question was human ingenuity, the ability to “improve” nature. Vogt thought otherwise: humanity must consume less, to ease the pressure on the ecosystem of the Earth.

Charles Mann proposes to divide the followers of these scientists on the “wizards” and “prophets.” Wizards, followers Barloga, solve technological challenges, and the prophets, followers of Vogt (, blame human recklessness.

The road to hell

In 1948, Vogt published “the Road to survival”, the first book in the modern style “everything goes to hell.” In it he expressed the main argument in favor of environmental protection, which is now in motion, called, ” the capacity of the environment will sooner or later be exhausted.

This term assumes that each ecosystem has a limit of resources. Exceed a limit means to destroy the ecosystem. The growth of the population, writes Vogt, the need for food exceeds the capacity of the environment that would be disastrous: soil erosion, reduction of forest cover, species extinction and water pollution — all this sooner or later will lead to hunger in the world.

When the “Road to survival” was published, Borlaug, young fitopatology (specialist who studies plant diseases), worked in Mexico on a project funded by the Rockefeller Foundation.

The scientist brought a new variety of wheat: its stem was much shorter stem, regular wheat, which is strongly tilted, and the result is a plant to decay and die. A new variety of wheat has increased yields so much that in 1968 the United States Agency for international development, called this event a “green” revolution is a phenomenon that defined the 20th century.

The consequences of the green revolution was especially noticeable in Asia, where in 1962 the foundations of the Rockefeller and Ford opened the international rice research Institute. While at least half of the continent’s population starving and living in poverty.

The researchers were able to bring new, high-yielding variety of rice. In the 1970-ies and 1980-ies of the crop in Asia has increased three times. More than 80% of rice grown in modern Asia, refers to the variety that scientists have deduced in the 1960-ies of the last century.

However, as predicted by Vogt, a huge leap in performance has resulted in serious environmental problems. The prophets claimed that the “green” revolution is just a way to postpone the problem of mass starvation: a happy occasion, not the solution.

Population growth and prosperity, according to the prophets, means that soon it will be necessary again to increase the yield of crops — magicians call it the second green revolution.

Some of the methods used during the first green revolution, is no longer available to mankind. Farmers are unable to sow new ground, because almost every hectare of arable land already developed.

It is impossible to increase the amount of used fertilizers: they have abused everywhere, except some areas in Africa. The wizards believe that the best way is to use the possibilities of genetic modification to achieve higher yields. The prophets believe that we need to do the reverse: use less land, less water waste and stop polluting the environment.

Nitrogen

In the mid-19th century German scientist Justus von Liebig found that the amount of nitrogen in the soil affects the rate of plant growth. For Liebig the soil was the only reason that holds the roots. Add nitrogen fertilizer, and get a great harvest.

But in those days didn’t know how it is possible to produce nitrogen fertilizer. The technology was developed by German physicist — Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch. Process Haber-Bosch may have been the most important technological achievement of the 20th century.

This process is used for producing virtually all the synthetic fertilizers in the world. 45% of the population feeds mainly products grown with these fertilizers.

There are no victories without defeats. Over the past 60 years the plants were able to absorb only about 60% of fertilizers used. The remaining 40% was in water or air (in the form of nitric oxide).

Fertilizers enrich the earth and under water: they contribute to the growth of aquatic plants. Dying, these plants settle to the bottom of the ponds, they feed on the remains of microorganisms. Microorganisms multiply rapidly, consuming more oxygen, and as a result, other forms of life die.

The use of nitrogen fertilizers increases the amount of nitrogen oxide emissions into the atmosphere. In the upper layers of the stratosphere nitric oxide reacts with ozone, which protects living organisms from ultraviolet radiation and neutralize it.

Before Haber and Bosch received the Nobel peace prize against chemical fertilizers spoke English botanist albert Howard (1873-1947), the founder of organic farming. Albert and his wife, Gabrielle (plant physiologist) in 1943 he published the book “Agricultural Testament”.

Scientists believed that the earth is a living organism, not a container for chemicals. The physical structure of humus, the microorganisms living in the soil, the dynamic relationship between the roots and the earth — it was not known when the von Liebig laid the foundations for agricultural chemistry.

Howard believed that the industrialization of agriculture leads to population decline in rural areas and the destruction of the usual way of life. His comments were fair, although his opponents did not consider that a bad thing. Today it is obvious that the concerns of the prophets regarding the harmful effects of agrochemicals on soil were justified.

It would seem to reconcile two points of view is still possible. Wizards could think about using organic fertilizers, and the prophets, in turn, would agree to use chemicals as a secondary method of fertilizer. However, this did not happen: exchanging mutual insults, they are farther away from each other.

Rubisco

No one knew why the plants are so heavily dependent on nitrogen. Only after the Second world war, scientists discovered that plants need nitrogen mainly for the production of the protein rubisco.

Rubisco, the enzyme that plays a key role in photosynthesis and in biological standards, he’s a real couch potato. In average per second enzymes catalyze thousands of reactions, and it pleases rubisco to catalyze only two or three.

But that’s not all: rubisco is not doing its function. In 40% of cases he is having to capture the carbon, wrongly attaches a molecule of oxygen, which interrupts chain reactions in photosynthesis and a waste of energy and water.

The process has to start from scratch. To compensate for all the shortcomings of rubisco, plants need to produce large amounts of this protein, consequently needs a lot of nitrogen.

But evolution has found a workaround — C4 photosynthesis (C4 means that the process involves molecules containing four carbon atoms). In this case, the molecules of carbon captures not rubisco, and other enzymes.

Scientists worldwide are trying to turn rice into a plant of the class C4, which will grow faster, consume less water and fertilizer and give more yields. Rice is an important food product in the world, as it is in the diet more than half the world’s population. Rice shortage will lead to a humanitarian disaster whose consequences will be felt in all corners of the world.

The project studies rice class C4 (The C4 Rice Consortium), which is funded by the bill and Melinda gates attempt to prevent a global catastrophe. There are many plants in which photosynthesis occurs via the C4-path. Scientists believe that the C4 path is the product of evolution, and therefore, in most plants there are predecessors of the genes that later are responsible for C4-photosynthesis. It is hoped that the figure belongs to this group of plants, and the researchers will be able to identify and Wake up the sleeping gene.

Even if the project does not bring results, is not the only innovative idea biologists. There are still Samothrace corn, wheat that can grow in salt water, improved ecosystem soil — over all these scientists are already working. The probability that at least some of these projects will be successful, had, however, it is also unlikely that none of them will bring results.

The innovative idea of the prophets

Wizards have always maintained that the type of agriculture, which promoted the prophets, will not be able to feed the future population of the Earth. Data from numerous studies have shown that the yield of farms operating according to the principles of the prophets yields fewer calories per hectare than farms of wizards sometimes this difference is not significant, and sometimes huge.

According to the prophets, it is meaningless to evaluate the efficiency of farms only in terms of calories per hectare. These figures do not include the effects of the devastation of rural areas, the level of environmental pollution, the taste and nutritional value of products.

On this the wizards have an answer: rice class C4 need less fertilizer and water to produce more results, and so for the environment it is better than normal rice. For wizards, the idea that agriculture should follow a natural ecosystem, is absurd: just as hyperintense industrialized agriculture that uses genetically modified seeds superproductive, will be able to feed the future world population.

If the wizards have a pic of the class C4, and the prophets have their own innovative idea.

Wheat, rice, corn, oats, barley, rye and other cereals is an annual plant that must be planted each year. Wild plants, on the contrary, are perennial: they bloom every summer for a decade. Perennial plants have a more developed root system and less demanding.

The average Wheatgrass (Thinopyrum intermedium) is a perennial relative of wheat (Tr?ticum aest?vum). In the Western hemisphere was brought from Asia in the 1930-ies as feed for livestock. Researchers are trying to withdraw from the Wheatgrass the new variety of wheat, which has already given the name Kernza.

Kernza as a class C4 rice may not bring the expected results. In order for the plant was suitable for agriculture, researchers need to increase the size of its grains, to modify the structure of plants and to improve the qualities that are important for baking. While work is slow.

The cultivation of perennial grasses is a complex way to increase the yield, and it has alternatives. For example, the cultivation of cassava — root of a tropical plant. Judging from the number of calories per hectare, cassava is several times more than wheat and other cereals.

This is true for potatoes — North alternative to cassava. Although cassava is unfamiliar to many cultures, perhaps, easier to contribute to its spread than to breed entirely new varieties of plants.

In the prophets there are many ways to feed the future population of the Earth. It is difficult to achieve, dilution of the rice class C4 is not a less difficult task. But the biggest problem with prophets is the labor force.

The right choice

After the Second world war the governments of most countries stimulated the migration of people from rural areas to cities and sought to mechanize agriculture for increasing yields and reducing costs (especially for labour).

It was expected that the demand for farmers will start to fall, they will have to move to the cities where the factories, their pay would be better. Not everything went smoothly: in many countries, including even the most developed, the countryside was devastated.

For the prophets agriculture should first and foremost care for the soil. In the case of mass production it is hard to do: we need to return to rural labor, to provide people with decent working conditions and good wages, which would entail an increase in costs. Moreover, you need to completely rewrite the legal system. To implement such social change is not easy.

This is the source of perennial dispute between magicians and prophets. For wizards farming — useful, but hard work that needs to be simplified and shortened as much as possible to maximize personal freedom.

For the prophets agriculture is a concern for the preservation of the environment and forms of social organization, which are the basis of life since the first agricultural revolution, which occurred more than ten thousand years ago. Farming can be hard work, but it strengthens the bond between people and Land.

Both arguments similar skew lines are in different planes. In 2050, the current twenty-year will have to make a choice: or wizards of the prophets? They will choose not based on what is possible and what, in their opinion, correctly.