The shadow of the new president-elect of the US plane on Bab Inghli this great wasteland where the UN conference is held on the climate in Marrakesh. In the Red City, as he is known this beautiful walled city, the name of Donald Trump is on everyone’s lips, though no one dares to say it. Could it alone, torpedo all the efforts that led to the unexpected conclusion of the Paris agreement on climate?
An analysis of Étienne Leblanc in MarrakechTwitteremail
Donald who? Let’s face the biggest star of the UN climate conference being held in Morocco, “he whom we-do-must-not-Be-name” is not on site and do not account come.
Quite the contrary. If delegates from some 195 countries are in Marrakesh, this is an attempt to apply the Paris climate agreement. An agreement signed and ratified by the United States, Donald Trump has promised to divorce.
He promised it, and it seems to act accordingly. His first move has been to appoint a well known climate skeptic Myron Ebell, to lead the transition of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). “We will dismantle it in many ways,” said Mr. Trump.
This is the same agency that is responsible for implementing the main environmental regulations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas in the United States. The famous “Clean Power Plan,” which enabled Barack Obama arrived in Paris with the credibility to muster enough big polluters around a common agreement.
This global plan aimed at reducing pollution from coal plants. Donald Trump has promised to annul the regulation and revive the industry the most polluting fossil fuel on the planet.
The elephant in the room
In Marrakech, although it does not mention the name of Trump, the question is on everyone’s lips: the American withdrawal from the Paris agreement and the abandonment of American leadership on the climate issue they encourage other countries to give up the fight?
The Russian government already resistant to the idea of spending money to fight against the phenomenon of global warming, will he enjoy the new US position to retire as the Paris Agreement? And Japan? Australia? Brasil? The Persian Gulf countries? Will there be a mass movement? This is not to exclude.
Donald that so? Donald Trump, the elephant in the room of the Marrakech conference.
“I doubt Mr. Trump can make the competitive coal market in the US again,” said Glen Peters, an economist for the Norwegian CICERO Research Group on Climate Change, present in Marrakech. In fact: the United States, coal has been supplanted by low natural gas prices.
Aldon Meyer, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, one of the most influential environmentalists in the US, also highlights a truth: “The United States, it is only 15% of global emissions of greenhouse gases it remains 85% elsewhere. ”
Why, then, Mr. Trump is it the elephant in the room? Simply because it will change the political climate of the planet. If Barack Obama had not put his weight if he did not convince China to get on the train for the fight against climate change, it has not circumvented Congress to pass his US regulations to reduce the use of coal, is strong to bet that there would be no agreement in Paris today.
The arrival of Donald Trump will change this dynamic.
Until the end
In Marrakech, the Americans act as if nothing had happened. The negotiating team on the climate issue set up by Obama renewed efforts to prove to the world that the cause will not be abandoned so easily.
And heavy artillery is deployed: US Secretary of State, John Kerry, who played a key role in the conclusion of the Paris Agreement, will be present in Marrakech on Tuesday. US Energy Secretary Ernest Munoz, spend all week in the Moroccan city.
And both come to Marrakech with a thinly veiled fear: in abandoning the fight against climate change, Donald Trump will leave the way clear to the Chinese leadership to take the climate of the planet.
No country invests as much in renewable energy in green cities or in electric cars. But without political counterweight without diplomatic counterweight, nothing will prevent China to yield to the excess of fossil fuels to generate growth.
Donald who? The Chinese, they do not hesitate to pronounce his name.