That reserve 2018 on the federal scene?

Archival Photo, Boris Proulx

Guillaume St-Pierre

Monday, 8 January 2018 21:10

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Monday, 8 January 2018 21:10

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OTTAWA | The year 2018 is a mine field for Justin Trudeau, whose government is plagued by ethical problems. The impulsive Donald Trump, the legalisation of cannabis, the provincial elections in Quebec and Ontario and the ministers weakened within his cabinet are as many pitfalls lie on the road of the prime minister. The eyes will also be riveted on the opposition parties and their leaders, who struggle to find their marks. What’s in store the next year on the federal scene ? Tour of the horizon.

The NAFTA and the elusive Donald Trump

File Photo, AFP

Donald Trump could rip in the coming weeks, the trade agreement between Canada, the United States and Mexico. The free trade Agreement north american (NAFTA) governs for more than 20 years the trade relations between these countries. Its renegotiation, as required by Mr. Trump, is without a doubt the most difficult on the office of Justin Trudeau. A failure of the negotiations would it be wrong for the prime minister of canada, taking into account the suction of the american president ? “Impossible, no one is required,” says political scientist François Rocher. Professor of Sciences Po at the University of Alberta Frédéric Boily is not of this opinion. Attacks well calibrated on the strategy adopted by the liberals could fly, according to him.

The Earth calls Jagmeet Singh

Photo from the archives, Guillaume St-Pierre

The new democrats have chosen young chef of 38 years camped out to the left, a friend of the workers and a lover of selfies to deal with Justin Trudeau. But until now, the mayonnaise does not with the electorate. If he wants to reverse the trend, Mr. Singh must demonstrate to Canadians that the NDP is the real champion of the middle class, and not the liberals, believes the constitutionalist Frédéric Bérard.

It must also this year to build an organization and put his stamp on the party to make them forget about Thomas Mulcair. This could force Mr. Singh to make choices that are heart-rending, as to bet on the electorate multicultural large cities to the detriment of some regions, including Quebec, writes Peter Graefe.

Andrew Scheer and the shadow of Stephen Harper

Photo from the archives, Guillaume St-Pierre

Andrew Scheer sentence to make his mark as the new leader of the conservative party. If he wishes to, at the very least heat Justin Trudeau in the next election in 2019, he will have to put all of its efforts this year to get out of the shadow… of Stephen Harper. Mr. Scheer has won the leadership race of his party by comparing it to Mr. Harper, but with a smile. The problem is that Canadians have rightly rejected the former conservative prime minister, noted Frédéric Boily. “He must find a way to embody a certain continuity, but at the same time find its own brands. This is what he can’t do, ” says the political scientist.

“This year, Mr. Scheer should give an overview of what it has to offer to Canadians. Otherwise, it will be easy enough to ignore, ” says a professor of political science at McMaster University in Ontario, Peter Graefe.

The provincial elections are crucial

Justin Trudeau has had it relatively easy up here on the forehead of federal-provincial relations. But he could have more trouble in the future if Ontarians and Quebecers are betting on the change in 2018. Liberal governments currently in place in these two provinces, rather friendly to their big brother federal, are struggling in the polls. They are left behind by the progressive conservatives in Ontario and the Coalition avenir Québec city, Québec. Two parties that are likely to annoy more Mr. Trudeau, according to Frédéric Boily. “These parties have a dimension provincialiste more important. Therefore, when the time comes for Mr. Trudeau to build a national consensus, for example on the environment, he could face more provinces that are against a pan-canadian approach. “

Martine Ouellet, or the end of the role two-headed

Photo from the archives, Guillaume St-Pierre

The Bloc québécois is still fighting for its relevance so that its head always share his time between Ottawa and Quebec. The role a two-headed Martine Ouellet will end in the autumn with the provincial election in Quebec. With the Parti québécois, which has put independence on the backburner, the Block must take up the torch, believes Frédéric Bérard. “The only thing that the Block can do in 2018, that is to put the emphasis on sovereignty in the hope that the secessionists continue to vote for them,” he said. If you’re not able to make the promotion of independence when you call Bloc québécois, you use what ? “

To a necessary reshuffle

Archive Photos

The ministerial team of Justin Trudeau turns out to be weaker than expected, according to many observers. Mélanie Joly, Diane Lebouthillier, Kent Hehr and to a lesser extent Bill Morneau are perfect examples, according to the experts consulted by The Newspaper. It’s a safe bet that these four ministers will be reassigned to other duties before the end of 2018. It only remains to know when. The paris are open.