The Earth may warm up to 15 percent more by the year 2100

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AFP

Wednesday, 6 December 2017 16:07

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Wednesday, 6 December 2017 16:07

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The Earth would by 2100 warm up 15 per cent higher than the worst prediction of the experts of the united nations, according to a study published Wednesday, which emphasises the need to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases, in order to hope to remain below 2°C.

The intergovernmental panel on climate change (Ipcc), the scientific body of reference on the global warming, which was released in 2014 a range of scenarios predicting the climate warming at the end of the Twenty-first century according to the volume of greenhouse gas emissions.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, climate scientists at the Carnegie Institute of Stanford university in California, considered in this study, published in the journal Nature, that “the warming climate is likely to be more important” as the worst models of the Ipcc.

Pointing the finger at the degree of uncertainty of climate scenarios, they note that the models with the most pessimistic, which assumes increasing emissions of greenhouse gases throughout the century, predict a temperature increase between 3.2 and 5.9 degrees celsius by 2100 compared to pre-industrial period.

In the aim of narrowing this broad range, the study introduces in models of data related to satellite observation of the solar energy absorbed or returned by the Earth. And it “eliminates the lower part of this range,” concluding that “the warming most likely is about 0.5°C higher than suggested by the crude model” of the Ipcc in question, summarizes the press release from Carnegie.

At this point, the world has gained almost 1°C, according to the scientists. Less than a degree, which was enough to cause more precipitation, shrinkage of the sea ice, acidification of the oceans and increase in their average level.

“Our results indicate that achieving any goal of stabilization of global temperature, will require greater reductions of greenhouse gas emissions than previously calculated,” write the authors of the study.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 it plans to limit to within +2°C the rise in average global temperature compared to the levels before the industrial Revolution, or even to 1.5°C.