On paper, Hillary Clinton appears headed for a fairly comfortable victory . Although the gap is only 2.9% with Donald Trump, according to the average of polls by Real Clear Politics , the Democrat is leading in enough states to do as well as Barack Obama in 2012, according to projections of most mathematical models. But as Nate Silver writes for the site Five Thirty Eight , just as the polls are planted in two or three states that everything changes. The four points that all will play out.
Who will vote for the 7% undecided?
There are about two times more uncertain than it was four years. Mark, a flooring specialist worker of 61 years, told 20 Minutes he did not choose “between the plague and cholera.” It will probably abstain for the first time in over forty years. Kristine, a student of 24 years, will also stay home because, in California, there is no suspense (no Republican has won since Reagan). Charlie, a former soldier of 32 years, believe it, select the “neither-nor” and vote for the independent curator Evan McMullin. To catch up, Trump would need a miracle and attract at least 75% of the undecided, which seems complicated.
What will be the participation of young people and minorities?
This is the concern of Clinton. Obama was raised by the youth vote and African-American and Latino minorities. The Democrat, crushed by Sanders on the vote of 18-29, has never managed to generate excitement. some indicators were: 42 million have already made their choices through early voting or 6% more than in 2012. The figures are however down among African Americans but up the Hispanic side, particularly in Florida , Arizona and Nevada.
Trump’s Ghosts voters they will point?
The Trump camp put on two factors: the voters who did not dare say they would vote for the Republican candidate in the polls, and the forgotten pollsters who have not voted for years. In practice, the comparative between the Internet polls (in writing) and telephone (orally) showed no difference, suggesting that his supporters do not hide. On the other side, with investments of just over 50%, there is clearly reserves voice. But if mobilizing disaffected occurs mainly in conservative states already acquired Trump, the impact on the final map will be limited.
Were the polls could crash completely?
Many Republicans give the example of Brexit . But in reality, there was less than 1% difference between the day before the vote “stay” and “go.” There, with 3%, we are at the extreme limit of the margin of error. Especially, many models, such as Princeton University, are based on the average of local surveys of tens. Translation: the risk is spread, and the likelihood that all the pollsters are planted is very low. There still has a downside: there are few polls in critical states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. So, if Trump prevailed in Florida and Ohio, and surprised the two other states promised Clinton could win the photo finish.