What is a summit meeting between Trump and Kim?

AFP

AFP

Friday, 9 march, 2018 02:59

UPDATE
Friday, 9 march, 2018 02:59

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The surprise announcement of a historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong is A rebound major in one of the diplomatic files are the most complicated in the world. But many questions arise on what will be this meeting.

Where will the summit?

Only thing confirmed at this stage: the summit will be held by the end of may.

If it takes place in Pyongyang, he is confident that Mr. Trump will be received in great pomp. But for the american president, the risk would be to give the impression that he has come to present his respects.

The demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that divides the peninsula, where Mr. Kim and the south Korean president Moon Jae-in should meet at the end of April on the occasion of the third inter-Korean summit in history – is the place most likely for a meeting Trump-Kim.

Its access is easy from both sides, the security of the area is guaranteed and the infrastructure for this kind of meeting already exist.

A foreign city with less of a symbolic charge as Beijing or Geneva -Kim Jong un was schooled in Switzerland – would involve a third country in the organization. In addition, this would mean that the protagonists are travelling, or Kim Jong One has not left North Korea since his arrival to power in late 2011.

Seoul would probably be a place off limits to the North, in the same way that the city of Washington. But on the other hand, no one imagined there are still three months that the sister of north Korean leader was going to go in the south Korean capital a few weeks later.

The united nations headquarters in New York city, the american president, would imply that Kim Jong A crowd american soil.

How Trump will he prepare for it?

The announcement on the south lawn of the white House holding a summit came less than 24 hours after the secretary of State Rex Tillerson asserted that the United States was “still far from negotiations” with Pyongyang.

Diplomats in north korea are known as negotiators and seasoned. But since the election of Donald Trump, the State department lost a number of experts from the folder Korean, as the new U.s. ambassador to Seoul, has still not been designated.

The special representative of the United States to the political situation in north korea Joseph Yun, who was one of the main “channels of communication” with Pyongyang, has just left his post for reasons “personal”.

“The peaks occur usually at the end of a long process of negotiations at a lower level where a lot of the details are settled,” observed Robert Kelly, an associate professor at the national University of Busan.

“Trump, always seeking publicity, thrusts in directly,” he tweeted, suggesting the risk that the u.s. president “is freed of decades of joint policy between Seoul and Washington, on which subject he has no idea, to conclude an agreement that would be a +victory+ that no other responsible american would validate.”

How the two will agree?

MESSRS Trump and Kim are radically different, while being strangely similar. The north Korean leader inherited power and been trained for years to that end, when the american billionaire is the most unlikely president in american history.

Mr. Kim has a lot more experience of government-six years – and could remain in office for decades, so the “a” on the following day the media controlled by the regime is obviously the least of her worries.

But the two men, who exchanged insults, value personal loyalty, which are among their closest advisers, their family members, and share the same interest for the scene.

Donald Trump has mentioned the idea of organising a day a military parade. The major parades have always been one of favourite shows of the dynasty of Kim.

What is the role of Seoul?

All the latest announcements have been south Korean.

They are emissaries of the South, who revealed that Pyongyang was ready to discuss its nuclear arsenal, or even that Mr. Trump accepted the invitation of the North to a summit.

During the first months of his presidency, Donald Trump has played the card of china to try to influence the North and approached the japanese Prime minister Shinzo Abe, giving the impression that the south Korean president from the centre-left Moon Jae-in was put on the sidelines.

But the old lawyer elected in may by preaching openly in a dialogue with the North has, however, staked everything on its Olympic games “Peace” to appease Pyongyang, and never no more frontal opposition to the heavy handed approach of Donald Trump.

How will react the China?

For decades, China has been a unconditional diplomatic support and economic of the North. But relations between Beijing and Pyongyang are now seized.

Mr. Kim did not go to Beijing to present his respects to the chinese president Xi Jinping.

And China is irritated by the impetuosity of the young leader, its nuclear tests and ballistic cascade, showing more good will in the implementation of international sanctions.

At the same time, Beijing fears most of all a collapse in north korea, which would entail the advent of its border in a unified Korea aligned with Washington.

Negotiations can, therefore, be good news for China.

It would be a very good eye any reduction of the us military presence which might arise from any eventual agreement.