Holland, bad luck to the end?

Politics 28 December, 2016

Francois Hollande has renounced to run for a second term while the French economy seems finally on the right track. No chance, definitely … Unless a final political drama …
Hollande will remain as the definitive “loser”, the most unloved president of the Fifth Republic, and the only one forced to retreat before the obstacle of a presidential campaign post-first mandate? Its image of loser and unlucky could be reinforced by the evolution of the economy which, while it has withdrawn itself from the game – a new one – finally gives real signs of improvement. After spending the quinquennium announcing the resumption and the next reversal of the unemployment curve, without convincing his results, this time, a few weeks after the announcement of his renunciation, it could be the right one. Job creation picks up sharply, especially in the interim period, the public debt is reduced (very slightly) and, as a last indicator closely scrutinized by the business analysts, because of the richness of information on the future, Straightforwardly. In December, the leading indicator published by INSEE jumped all at once, returning to an unknown level since … July 2011. This is more than promising for the growth of the months to come.

Like the other adoption Corrèze

A parallel with the Jacques Chirac of 1997 can be made. In deciding a cold dissolution of the National Assembly, another first under the Fifth Republic, Francois Hollande’s predecessor at the Elysee had been engaged in a “hazardous experiment”, to use the expression of the first beneficiary of The operation, Lionel Jospin. An experiment that resembled a quasi political suicide. Why such a dissolution? Like Hollande, who has just been made hara kiri, Chirac was struggling with his majority divided between Balladurians and Chirquians; Like Holland, doubted the economy, and felt unable to close the 1997 budget with a public deficit of less than 3% – already without which France could not qualify for the euro. What Jacques Chirac did not see when he dissolved the lower house was that the first indicators of a real recovery were accumulating, following the rise in the dollar which boosted competitiveness and thus the morale Of French industrialists. And that, far from being impossible, the respect of the 3% deficit could rely on this smiling conjuncture that was emerging.

We know the continuation: the PS in power, and a Lionel Jospin boasting with his Finance Minister DSK of having organized a recovery really perceived after their arrival, but actually already running at the end of winter 1997. Not Of luck for Jacques Chirac … as for the other Franco-Hollande adoptive Correzian, who renounces to fight when he could try to gather the fruit of his reforms.

What’s the point?

During the ritual of televised vows for 2017, our still president will of course be able to highlight encouraging economic indicators. But what good is it, since he is offside? Unless he starts to benefit the “bazaar” left, the entry into inconclusive campaign for the time of Manuel Valls, trying one last comeback in reversal of form. He evidently thinks of it, according to the last echoes heard. But is it really possible while its popularity remains low? François Hollande will undoubtedly have the satisfaction of having left to his successor an economy in better shape. Which he will appreciate, of course!