The financial analysts more pessimistic in June

Business 28 June, 2017

For analysts, the swiss, a shadow looms over the economy in the United States. (Photo: Keystone)

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A fault?

The financial analysts are showing greater pessimism about the йvolution of the Swiss economy. The index measuring expectations over the next six months was 20.7 percentage points in June, compared to 30.8 points in may.

Malgrй this slowdown, the indicator still а a level that is historically high, stress Wednesday, Credit Suisse, and CFA Society Switzerland, in charge of the monthly survey. The index was steady since march at over 20 points, which was more йtй the case since fйvrier 2014.

On the йvaluation of the present conjuncture of Switzerland, there has been no change compared а these last few months. More than 30% of sondйs think that it is good and 69% of them call it normal.

At the euro area level, judgements do have йgalement guure йvoluй since the month of may. They are 45% а considйrer that the economic conditions in these countries is good and 52% а think that it is normal. And most of the moitiй individuals questionnйs not expected а no change of the economic situation in the euro area over the next six months.

Dйgradation in the United States

The financial analysts will show, however, more pessimistic about the economy in the United States: 45% of them qualify as good, compared with 58% in may. And 66% of sondйs not expect any change in the next six months.

At the level of prйvisions of inflation, 59% of people interrogйes do prйvoient not a price increase, in Switzerland, in the coming months. In may, they йtaient still 52% а anticipate an increase, compared to 35% in June. But since the enqukte rйalisйe in the month of may, inflation has lйgиrement progressй, note the authors of the survey. In a dйlai of 5 years, the majoritй of rйpondants expects а a price increase of 0 а 2%.

Regarding the euro zone, the financial analysts voted overwhelmingly for the status quo (69%). They are no more than 28% а rely on a price increase, compared to 56% in may. For the United States, 52% of individuals questionnйs rely on an increase over the next six months.

Instabilitй in the United Kingdom

On the plan monйtaire, no clear trend emerges in relation to the apprйciation expected or not of the swiss franc against а the euro. In this sense, the situation is similar а the month of may. Prus 60% of sondйs anticipate, however, a constant exchange rate over the next few months. And 48% of financial analysts continue to think that the franc will dйprйcier against the dollar.

At the product level intйrieur gross domestic product (GDP) helvйtique, the great majoritй of financial analysts is expected а growth of between 1% and 2% in the course of these three а next five annйes.

The authors of the йtude have йgalement sondй the spйcialistes of finance on the low rйsultat obtained by Theresa May to йlections lйgislatives in June in the United Kingdom. More than 60% of sondйs think that the output process of the countries of the Union europйenne (EU) will be slowed down. And 85% of them claim that the instabilitй policy has augmentй.